In a move that generated nationwide headlines, no-nonsense New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg recently quit the Republican Party and announced that he would govern the city as an independent. Many political observers believe that Bloomberg's move is further proof that he intends to seek the presidency. In recent months, Bloomberg has repeatedly bemoaned the gridlock and partisan rancour in Washington, insisting that we need a president who can bridge the partisan gap and get things done. Bloomberg points to his success in New York, an overwhelmingly Democratic city, as proof that Republicans and Democrats can and should work together. Of course, Bloomberg denies he is the person he has in mind for the job of bringing the two parties together on the national level.
A Bloomberg presidential candidacy should not be taken lightly by either party. His personal fortune is estimated to be between $5 billion and $12 billion, and one Bloomberg aide has indicated that the mayor is willing to spend $500 million of it on a presidential bid. Millions of those dollars will have to be spent on the costly and time-consuming task of gaining ballot access in each of the fifty states and assembling a nationwide campaign organization. Nevertheless, Bloomberg should have plenty of money left to devote to actual campaigning.
Who will a Bloomberg candidacy appeal to, and which party's candidate will he hurt most by running? Although a Republican until only a few days ago, Bloomberg holds decidedly liberal views on a host of social issues, including gay marriage and abortion. Therefore, the mayor most likely will cost the Democratic candidate more support than the Republican. However, if the GOP picks a rockribbed conservative (a la Fred Thompson) as the party's standard-bearer, Bloomberg may find some support among disaffected moderate Republicans. Then there is the question of New York. How will Bloomberg affect the outcome in his home state, especially if fellow New Yorker (by way of Arkansas) Hillary Clinton clinches the Democratic nod? Although he may not win the state, Bloomberg is certain to make the race in the Empire State a viable three-way contest. And if he divides the state's liberal base, then the GOP will have a fighting chance of securing New York's sizable bounty of Electoral College votes for the first time since 1984.
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