Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Week One Picks

Miami 28 Marshall 17

Clemson 21 FSU 20

WVU 38 Western Michigan 24

Georgia 28 Olahoma State 27

This week's lesson: home-field advantage means everything early on in the season.

Tuesday, August 7, 2007

Glavine and 300

New York Mets lefthander Tom Glavine recently became the 23rd pitcher in big league history to win 300 games. Some baseball experts argue that Glavine will be the last pitcher to reach the cherished milestone. Randy Johnson has 284 wins, but he has suffered nagging injuries the last two seasons and he is approaching 44, an age at which most starting pitchers are already in their rocking chairs. Moreover, the 5-man rotation and the game's emphasis on relief pitching has significantly reduced starting pitchers' chances of winning 15 games, let alone 20, in a single season.

But let us not forget that Tom Glavine came up in 1987, when 5-man rotations and managers' love affair with relievers were already well entrenched. Glavine has never started more than 36 games in any season, and for his career he has averaged about 33-34 starts per campaign in non-strike years. He has also never pitched more than 246 2/3 innings in any season. And let us not forget too that Glavine pitched most of his career under Braves manager Bobby Cox, who is notorious for yanking starters at the first hint of trouble.

Sure, it was easier to win 300 games when pitchers started 40 games a year and routinely completed 20 of them. But if Glavine can achieve 300 wins in this day and age, there is no reason another pitcher will not one day reach the 300 mark. All it takes is consistency.

Let us not forget that baseball experts also made the same prediction about the demise of 300 games winners in the 1980s and early 1990s when the likes of Steve Carlton, Tom Seaver, Don Sutton, Phil Niekro, and Nolan Ryan reached the hallowed milestone. Baseball writers contended then, as they do now, that the current crop of starting pitchers would not be able to match their predecessors' feat because they rarely started more than 35 games or pitched more than 250 innings. (With the exception of Sutton, the others had started more than 40 games and pitched more than 300 innings several times in their careers.) Citing monster salaries, writers also claimed that pitchers would not have any incentive to hang around long enough to win 300.

Well, these predictions fell by the way side. Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, and Tom Glavine have all won 300 since the writers of the 80s and early 90s made their prognostications, and each of them have played more than 20 years. The echoes of the past should be remembered when the current crop of baseball experts declare that Glavine will be the last to join the 300 win club.